ADAPTATION MECHANISMS AND NEW DEVELOPMENT MODELS OF THE RUSSIAN PASSENGER CAR MARKET UNDER SANCTIONS (2022-2026)

Abstract

The article is devoted to a comprehensive analysis of the mechanisms by which the Russian passenger car market has adapted to sanctions restrictions over the period from 2022 to 2026. The aim of the study is to assess new models of market functioning under conditions of geopolitical instability. The methodological basis of the study includes an analysis of resolutions of the Government of the Russian Federation, statistical data from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Analytical Agency Avtostat, as well as the use of comparative and generalizing methods. The paper presents a periodization of the stages of the sanctions crisis, analyzes the dynamics of the localization of passenger car production and imports, and assesses the effects of legalizing parallel imports and regulating the recycling fee. The study’s results demonstrate that the industry has overcome the acute phase of the crisis, but continues to face a number of barriers. Parallel imports hinder the deepening of localization, while the point‑based system for assessing it encourages low‑tech operations, and dependence on Chinese platforms in the production of domestic brands creates additional technological risks. The authors substantiate the need to transition to targeted regulation of parallel imports, to revise the scoring system for localization, and to diversify technological partnerships. Based on the study, recommendations have been formulated to overcome industry barriers and ensure the technological sovereignty of the Russian Federation.