FORECAST OF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN REGIONS

Abstract

The article deals with the issues of forecasting the social component of the development of the Russian Federation constituent entities. It is shown that the social sphere, on the one hand, is an element of a larger regional system, and on the other hand, it is a complex entity itself, including various areas. On the basis of its peculiarities, the principles of further description and modelling are defined. The conceptual scheme of the economic and mathematical model of the social sphere of the region, including 6 key areas - education, health care, housing and utilities, culture and sports, trade, transport - is developed. The groups of factors influencing the change in the indicators of social development are determined. At the next stage, the formalisation of interrelations of private parameters was carried out and the logical model of the "Education" block was given as an example. The proposed approach is tested on the data on the Republic of Bashkortostan. In particular, the article presents a scenario forecast of the population of the region until 2030 in the context of age groups. The results of the forecast assessment of the parameters of the social sphere of the Republic of Bashkortostan under the baseline scenario are given. The subsequent calculation of the integral level of social sphere development in accordance with the previously developed methodology shows its decrease to 0.46-0.47 units in 2025-2030. The key factor of such a situation is the preservation of a significant lag in the level of labour remuneration from the national average.