GUIDELINES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM IN THE CONTEXT OF GEOPOLITICAL INSTABILITY

Abstract

In the article, the author identifies the preferred directions for the development of the Russian financial system, taking into account the growing geopolitical instability. Considerable attention as a factor determining the need to transform the domestic financial system was paid to the sanctions risks of disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT system, including the increase in the number of disconnected companies compared to April 2022, restrictions on transactions of domestic counterparties with foreign currency and other medium-term risks, the implementation of which already requires measures to adjustment of the fundamental parameters of the financial system. Along with this factor, other factors, unrelated to the current sanctions pressure, have been identified, the importance of which may increase in the future. This is an increase in geo-economic instability in the world, a change in the system parameters of the world economy, including the onset of a systemic crisis in countries that are traditional buyers of structurally significant goods for the domestic economy, including energy carriers and other mineral resources. The already available Annual Report of the Bank of Russia for 21.04.2022 has been studied in detail. to analyze the response of the Russian financial system to the factors of geopolitical instability in the period from February to April 2022, including changes in the key rate, monetary policy, the introduction of tightening and easing in terms of the organization of financial activities in the domestic market of Russia and in the international market. The positive and negative results achieved within the framework of the actions taken to reformat the Russian financial system have been identified, and taking into account these results, a system of recommendations has been developed regarding further guidelines for the development of the Russian financial system in conditions of geopolitical instability. In determining the appropriate benchmarks, attention is paid to the issues of differentiation of these benchmarks depending on the scenario of the development of the domestic financial system for 2022-2023 and subsequent years.