IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDS AND ASSESSMENT OF THREATS TO THE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE TRANSPORT COMPLEX OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Abstract

One of the distinguishing features of the management system is that it is based on a procedure for identifying hazards and assessing risks. The state of the transport sector, trends and forecasts of its formation and development have always been in the focus of interests of the leadership of our country, government organizations and the scientific community. This is explained by the fact that the transport sector is important for the development of society in particular and the state as a whole. In recent years, large-scale changes have begun to take place in the Russian Federation, including the development of new public legislation, the implementation of targeted projects, and the formation of new concepts.

Monitoring and diagnosing the degree of threats to the national interests of the state based on indicators of the development of the transport sector is an important task in the current realities of our life. Modeling threats to economic security, i.e., obtaining specific values ​​of economic security indicators depending on their belonging to a particular class (level) of risk, it is possible to develop an appropriate action plan to improve the economic security of the transport sector based on the proposed classification. The results serve as a worthy basis for developing development strategies for the future while maintaining stability. The purpose of the study is to form methodological provisions for the development of the theory of economic security based on the definition of threats to the economic security of the transport sector, using the proposed model of the relationship between key factors that affect the level of security in this area.

The authors systematized indicators characterizing the economic security of the transport industry. It has been proved that it is advisable to quantify the economic security of transport in fractions or percentages of the required level, using indicators that characterize the most important aspects of the country's transport provision and allow serving the population and the country's economy at the required level. At the same time, it is substantiated that the threshold levels of the proposed indicators are important, i.e. limit values, the excess of which violates the reproductive cycle, leads to the formation of negative, destructive trends and, ultimately, to a decrease in the economic efficiency of the system.

The study applied a set of general scientific approaches (abstract-logical, deductive, complex and systemic). The implementation of the research process was carried out with the help of the dialectical method of cognition, which predetermines the study of economic phenomena in their interconnection and development. To solve individual problems, economic and statistical methods, methods of comparison, absolute, relative and average values, graphical and tabular presentation of data, correlation and regression analysis, clustering by the Ward method were used.