TRANSFORMATION OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY UNDER SANCTIONS PRESSURE, THE PHENOMENON OF GREY IMPORTS AND STRUCTURAL IMBALANCES

Abstract

This study addresses the pressing issue of understanding the fundamental changes in the Russian economic system that have occurred since 2022. Under unprecedented sanctions pressure, disconnection from international financial mechanisms, and disruption of supply chains, the Russian economy has entered a qualitatively new state, requiring a theoretical rethink. This paper analyzes the mechanisms by which the national economy adapts to isolationist processes. It examines the transformation of the financial sector, characterized by changing approaches to exchange rate formation and the transition to over-the-counter transactions. It examines the phenomenon of gray imports, which has transformed from a necessary measure into a systemically important element of foreign economic activity. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of inflation processes that do not coincide with official statistical indicators. It identifies the phenomenon of "wide inflation" and hidden rising costs of living, which puts pressure on the consumer sector. The paper demonstrates that the Central Bank's key rate serves as the only instrument for curbing inflation, while simultaneously hindering the development of private lending. At the same time, the structural conflict between fiscal policy aimed at increasing defense spending and monetary policy aimed at cooling overheated demand is examined. The emergence of a "military Keynesian" model is noted, in which gross domestic product growth is achieved through extensive factors without increasing the supply of goods. Long-term risks associated with the loss of technological sophistication in production and dependence on imported components through third countries are analyzed. Special attention is given to the social consequences: social stratification, labor shortages, and income redistribution in favor of the defense sector. A contradiction between formal employment and real labor productivity is revealed. It is shown that demographic constraints and the outflow of skilled specialists pose long-term threats to economic development. The study uses a comparative analysis with the sanctioned economies of Iran and Venezuela, emphasizing the uniqueness of the Russian model of isolation, previously deeply integrated into global markets.