SELF-SUFFICIENCY AND IMPORT DEPENDENCE OF RUSSIA’S AGRI-FOOD SECTOR: ASSESSING RESILIENCE UNDER EXTERNAL SHOCKS

Abstract

The study examines the resilience of Russia’s agri-food sector under prolonged external shocks, including sanctions, logistics disruptions, trade reorientation, and the continuing dependence of selected production chains on imported technologies and inputs. The purpose of the paper is to identify the relationship between achieved self-sufficiency in key food categories and the remaining import dependence in technologically and institutionally sensitive segments. The theoretical contribution lies in interpreting agri-food resilience not as a static outcome of import substitution, but as a dynamic capacity to preserve domestic supply, relative price stability, and reproductive potential under changing external conditions. The methodological framework combines comparative, dynamic, index-based, and structural analysis of official statistical data, federal government materials, and sectoral reports for 2022–2024. The study compares actual self-sufficiency levels with the threshold values established by the Food Security Doctrine, evaluates foreign trade indicators for food and agricultural raw materials, and assesses production and institutional markers of resilience across key subsectors. The findings show that grain, fish, and meat segments were the most resilient in 2024, as their actual self-sufficiency levels substantially exceeded the required thresholds. At the same time, the dairy segment remained below the target benchmark, while dependence on imported genetics, breeding material, equipment, veterinary pharmaceuticals, selected feed components, and logistics solutions continued to generate structural constraints. The paper demonstrates that Russia’s agri-food sector exhibits a resilient but uneven configuration: macro-level food stability coexists with sector-specific vulnerabilities that require targeted industrial, technological, and trade-logistics policy responses.