THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC DEBT ON ECONOMIC SECURITY

Abstract

Both in the economic literature and in the circles of well-known scientists, government representatives, and the general public, the problems of sustainable and safe development of the budgetary and financial sphere are being discussed more and more actively. Particular attention is drawn to issues related to government debt borrowings. This article provides an assessment of the state of public debt, shows its impact on ensuring economic security. The rating of the subjects of the Russian Federation according to the level of debt burden was compiled, which made it possible to determine the place of the region according to this indicator. An author's system of indicators has been developed that can be used to study public debt. To analyze the state of public debt in the dynamics of 7 years (in the period from 2016 to 2022), such indicators as the debt burden ratio of the regional budget, public debt servicing costs in the total budget expenditures of the region, the debt dependence coefficient of the regional economy are considered. In order to neutralize the threats identified during the analysis, a strategy is proposed to ensure economic security in the financial and budgetary sphere of the region, taking into account the type of region and its state relative to risk zones. Based on the construction of an autoregressive model using the trend of a polynomial function, we attempted to predict the values of public debt.